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英央行难以强鹰?英镑日元走势或背离

Vantage 更新 Updated Fri, 2023 January 6 02:28

上回我们聊到,日本央行在实行了20多年的超级量化宽松政策后,在今年4月日央行行长黑田东彦卸任后,极有可能会结束量化宽松。事实上,目前各家主流央行基本都在朝着收紧货币政策的目标前进,只是收紧的脚步时快时慢。不过有一家央行今年可能难以继续维持强鹰作风。它就是英央行。

市场对于英央行无法再延续强鹰的担忧,主要源于英国经济衰退的前景。英国经济在2023年开局时就已处于不利位置。最新公布的12月英国制造业PMI指数反映出自2008-09年经济衰退以来最严重的经济活动下滑之一,12月标普全球英国制造业采购经理人指数(PMI)从11月的46.5降至45.3,连续第五个月出现下降,创下31个月低点。

周三,英国首相苏纳克(Rishi Sunak)发表了2023年新年演讲,就发展经济等五大问题做出了阐述和承诺。此外,随着英国国内外订单量有所下降,工厂的裁员幅度为2020年10月以来最大。英国首相苏纳克上任不到三个月就面临多重危机,包括创纪录的生活成本上涨、罢工运动导致的医疗体系和铁路服务系统中断、以及可能已经陷入衰退的经济。以上种种因素导致了目前执政党保守党的民调支持率很低。在最近的民调中,保守党落后于主要反对党工党20多个百分点。

对于通胀问题,英国政府预算责任办公室(OBR)预测,到今年年底,英国的通胀率将从去年超过11%的峰值降至3.8%。OBR还认为,由于企业和家庭继续面临高通胀,今年英国经济整体将萎缩1.4%。

因此,在通胀预期出现回落,且经济前景面临巨大风险的情况下,英国央行或许真的会考虑调整未来的政策路径。在12月,英央行一如预期加息50个基点,但董事会成员对该决定存在三派看法,推翻了市场对未来加息规模的预期。自日本央行上个月意外提高收益率上限区间以来,10年期英国和日本国债收益率之间的利差已收窄约10个基点。与此同时,日本国债与美国国债之间的收益率差距几乎没有变化,与德国国债收益率的利差也是如此。英镑兑日元的汇率在中线周期可能存在进一步回落的空间。 

2023年01月06日 许曦扬